6-27-16<\/p>\n
The UK has sued for divorce from the European Union. In fact the United Kingdom was not fully united, because England and Wales voted Go; Scotland and Northern Ireland voted Stay. Whether this will be a trial separation or an ugly split cannot be forecast. The proponents of every shade of Brexit\u2019s arguments failed to anticipate consequences and adjustments attendant upon any<\/em> result.<\/p>\n Trade will continue and probably thrive. Regulations \u2013 one of the onerous justifications for the revolt \u2013 might, or might not, continue, as Whitehall so chooses. And the same for the challenges posed by immigration, the other major irritant. There are myriad issues, small in the metanarrative but major in everyday life: what about sports leagues; the re-imposition of passport and customs policies; pensions of Brits who worked in Brussels; the status of long-term EU residents, for instance the numerous Polish workers who have lived in the UK and Ireland.<\/p>\n In fact the European Experiment always has been an uneasy arrangement. The countries that flocked to join, as they did to NATO, often were motivated by fear of the Russian bear that lingered outside their territories. And just as often, many countries flocked toward an EU trough of subsidies and debt forgiveness, a continent-wide and endless (they hoped) Christmas party.<\/p>\n As time marches on, and historians dissect this failed experiment (as I assume it will be \u2013 further disintegrating), the EU will be perceived as designed and nurtured as much from negative as positive impulses. Back during Churchill\u2019s propositions, a United States of Europe was seen either as a non-military NATO or a muscle-flexing counterbalance to the USA. Countries that were non-Atlantic, marginally European, and congenital mendicants scurried into the tent, as Common Market, common-currency factors, and bizarre regulations on Slavic rutabagas and Greenland\u2019s fish; annoying rules for chefs and smokers and vacationers; smothered the Euroquality of life.<\/p>\n The confusion about a thousand things, and (I predict) the rush of similar referenda in (pause for breath) France, Italy, Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Spain, Portugal, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and elsewhere \u2013 all suggest that this Brexit vote was an effect, not a cause. A symptom, not (as some allege) a disease. An electoral tantrum of deep-seated legitimacy, no less valid for its flailing and dramatic aspects.<\/p>\n Brexit thrived not in a vacuum. This same week, the populist, anti-statist Five Star Movement in Italy elected a young female mayor of Rome; a mayor of Turin; and strengthened the separatist Northern League \u2013 a quiet but significant revolution. Italy has as many course changes as gelato flavors, so let us take that pulse in 12 months. However, the LePens of France\u2019s Front National have knocked on the door of power. Holland\u2019s Geert Wilders is poised to become leader of the Netherlands.<\/p>\n Formerly \u201cfringe\u201d political leaders now are charting the courses of nations. The establishment is losing its power of imprimatur. If Lech Walesa was a credible leader after a life spent as a shipyard worker, or V\u00e1clav Havel could turn from writing plays to writing policies\u2026 so can Beppe Grillo, a former comedian, lead a popular movement in Italy; or a lifelong college teacher, anti-establishment, be elected president of Iceland (this week); or a businessman and media celebrity possibly become president of the United States.<\/p>\n Do Americans \u201chave a dog in the fight\u201d of Euro-politics? Surely. We are still one big family, if not happy. Western Civilization is one of the remarkable stories \u2013 remarkable achievements \u2013 of world history. I generally applaud any<\/em> people\u2019s impulses toward self-identity, cultural pride, folkish traditions, and robust independence. Everywhere in the world, every moment in history\u2019s timeline, it has led to vibrant expressions in art and music, literature and poetry, fashion and cuisine. <\/p>\n Nationalism is a positive virtue. When it has mutated into bullying, that problem should be addressed by means other than imposed homogenization and bureaucratic strait-jackets. One size does NOT fit all. Suppression can cause as many ills as indulgence.<\/p>\n And so\u2026 Brexit. The common people \u2013 the middle classes, working people, the so-called (thanks again, mass media) \u201cnon sophisticates\u201d \u2013 are fueling the revolt in every one of the nations listed above, for instance in Brexit\u2019s margins, the Midlands and working communities. Also the core of Marine LePen\u2019s support, and the essence of Donald Trump\u2019s victories.<\/p>\n Our media savants treat Brexit as a seismic crisis, as they will describe the dominoes that will fall across Europe. \u201cAnemic PR; bad salesmanship; voters\u2019 ignorance.\u201d But there is a much, much larger picture.<\/p>\n We are not in a major place, but rather a virtual snapshot, maybe a mere moment in a vast continuum, of Western history. Perhaps (only perhaps) the first inklings of pulling back from deadly secular statism. Does Kafka live, or continue to loom? A major aspect of this continuum has been nation-state politics. In succeeding centuries, Spain, the Netherlands, France, and Great Britain, virtually ruled the virtual world. When Germany united 150 years ago and gained similar strength, the party largely was over: prospective colonies gone, the seven seas jealously retained by Her Majesty\u2019s navy. World War I can be seen as the attempt of the Entente countries to deny the Central Powers hegemony, or even much economic mobility, in Europe. The subsequent war can be seen as Germany\u2019s attempt, aided by brutality and bigotry, to assert itself again.<\/p>\n With the EU, it is possible that the industrious and resourceful Germans will be seen by history as having discovered the optimum method of gaining lebensraum<\/em> after all, their place in the sun, only by economic and peaceful means. And not incidentally, beneficial to almost everyone affected, natives and neighbors alike.<\/p>\n Notice that, for all the nations agitating to leave the European Community, Germany is not one of them. That is because Germany, for all intents and purposes, is<\/em> the EU. Its nationalistic Pegida movement (also on the rise, certainly) is more concerned with migrants than with seats at EU tables in Brussels. Vladimir Putin has praised the Brexit vote, and the West ought to realize that recent developments have realigned the interests, no longer automatically antagonistic, of Russia and the West.<\/p>\n Continuums? In the more significant sweeps of history, Europe has successfully resisted scores of determined invasions by Muslims since the 700s. This is a major theme in Western history; as are unchecked migrations in many global settings. Whether European resistance and that of Christendom is now flaccid animates the fervent debates of our recent times. <\/p>\n In another meta-narrative, socialism has been viewed as a panacea, or a curse, hatched by Marx in the 1840s; but paternalistic schemes and associations were in fact the foundations of serfdom, feudalism, and the beneficent Craftmen\u2019s associations, guilds, and enterprises like that of the Fuggers of Augsburg, in the Renaissance. <\/p>\n As the world has become more complex, state socialism has become a seductive solution to social problems; so has state capitalism. Centralization. Anne Morrow Lindbergh, in a na\u00efve but prescient description, foresaw centralization as the wave of the future \u2013 \u201cevery wave has scum on its crest, but a wave of the future nonetheless.\u201d Waves recede after they crash\u2026 but are also followed by other waves. Where are we now?<\/p>\n And what is next in the headlines? As Communist states fell and Germany reunited, so might Ireland, especially in the wake of Brexit\u2019s anomalies. Unthinkable, a generation ago. Scotland finally might (re)achive independence. London, a \u201cRemain\u201d island within an island \u2013 because of internationalist elites and many immigrants \u2013 might become a city-state like the Vatican. Improbable, but borders possess dimished sanctity in this changing world. A multitude of speculation: if rampant democracy had seized the world earlier than it did, the Declaration of Independence might have been a Referendum instead. Imagine.<\/p>\n And as the world has become more complex, so too do Christians find themselves in a new place. Or at least in place they have read about, and when equipped by study of the scriptures, ready for. Really? Are we ready? Not really. Even the most studious eschatologist cannot anticipate the twists and turns of history\u2026 of the enemy\u2026 even of the Lord. We are watchmen at the gate.<\/p>\n End Times obsessions sometimes are counter-productive. To be an apocalyptic sometimes can persuade people to abandon not just temporal hope, but defenses and self-defenses as well. We have been advised for a long time (at least since the 17th chapter of John\u2019s Gospel, quoting Jesus) that we should be \u201cin this world, but not of this world.\u201d<\/p>\n Do we withdraw? \u2026 from everything<\/em>? Political parties, schools, associations, alliances? No, but we must be willing to assert spiritual as well as civic independence. \u201cIf the world hates you, remember that it hated Me first.\u00a0The world would love you as one of its own if you belonged to it, but you are no longer part of the world. I chose you to come out of the world, so it hates you\u201d (John 15:18-19).<\/p>\n Despite many Christians surrendering the prerogatives, every day is Independence Day for believers. Don\u2019t hesitate to vote NO; vote \u201cLeave\u201d; vote \u201cexit\u201d for many of the things of this world.<\/p>\n + + +<\/p>\n